The Fifth District in play?

Editorial, The Storm Lake Times, July 5, 2008
The Fifth District in play?
By Art Cullen

Four years ago, John Kerry led George Bush in the Iowa presidential voting 52-48% until the Fifth Congressional District phoned in. Bush won Iowa as a result. The reason? The state and national Democratic political apparatus wrote off Western Iowa because it was too conservative, by the numbers.

The Obama campaign does not intend to give up any ground with its 50-state strategy. Iowa is among the top swing states targeted by the Illinois Democrat. Winning the rural vote will be a key to his success, and unlocking the Fifth District is essential to that victory.

We’re told by the Obama camp that it will push to win the Fifth District. It may sound far-fetched, but Democrats Berkley Bedell and Tom Harkin proved that a progressive with common sense can win in Western Iowa.

The conservative Christian base of the Republican Party that prevails in these quarters is not energized by GOP standard bearer John McCain as it was with Bush. It’s possible that turnout could be muted in November among this key voting bloc. Obama also has been attempting to reach out to evangelicals with some success.

We were stunned with the level of organization the Obama campaign put into gear in Buena Vista County for the caucuses. That sort of organization will be on the ground this fall. Since McCain largely avoided Iowa, he does not have the same number of foot soldiers committed to the cause.

We could see Obama carrying the Fifth by winning Dickinson, Clay, Buena Vista, Carroll, Woodbury, Pottawattamie and Cherokee counties. That’s where the population is, and that’s where the most independent voters are. He might be able to compete in Crawford and O’Brien counties.

These places view ethanol in particular and the bioeconomy in general as important stepping stones into the future. Obama, by virtue of being from Illinois, is far more well-versed on the topic than McCain, who opposes ethanol subsidies.

An Obama win here is a long-shot. But McCain cannot take it for granted. If the Arizona senator wants to win Iowa, he will need to show up in Storm Lake, Spencer, Carroll, Denison and Spirit Lake to defend what should be his turf — and not just make the Sioux City airport stop. That’s going to be tough as he tries to play defense in the Rocky Mountain states and Deep South where Obama intends to bring his considerable resources to bear.

Republican despondence also may be a threat to incumbent Rep. Steve King, R-Kiron. Scoff if you will, but again recall that Harkin defeated incumbent Bill Scherle and Bedell knocked off incumbent Wiley Mayne in the post-Watergate landslide. The atmospherics may be similar this year.